Estimating long-term global supply costs for low-carbon hydrogen

This article presents a comprehensive approach for estimating the development of global production and supply costs low-carbon hydrogen from renewable energy sources (onshore wind, offshore wind solar photovoltaics) natural gas (natural reforming with carbon capture storage pyrolysis) until 2050. The analysis also assesses associated transportation by ship or pipeline. combination yields ranking cost-optimal individual countries. Estimation results suggest that will be most cost-efficient pathway in medium term (2020–2030). Production could become competitive long run (2030–2050) if capital decrease significantly. Until 2050, minimum fall to $1.5/kg under central assumptions below $1/kg optimistic some regions. long-term depends on regional characteristics, such as potentials prices. Imports are cost-effective where domestic potential is small and/or cost-intensive. Additionally, good import conditions exist countries which connected prospective low-cost exporters via existing pipelines can retrofitted transport hydrogen. Due high cost seaborne transport, trade likely develop regionally along pipeline networks.